This season, the 5-3 Buffalo Bills will be the Cincinnati Bengals’ toughest opponent at Paycor Stadium as they look to exact revenge on the team that ended their 2022 campaign. It is important to discuss the injury news that Josh Allen missed practise on Wednesday.
Mike Garafolo reports that Allen was initially expected to be limited during Wednesday’s practise due to a shoulder injury he sustained during Buffalo’s victory over the Bucs on Thursday night last week. Allen’s status was reduced to “Did Not Practise” for the third day.
In a later statement to the media, the quarterback for the Bills stated that he plans to play on Sunday night and that he is not concerned about missing practise.
Despite the injury, the Bengals should still play Josh Allen on Sunday night.
The Bengals are getting Allen at the ideal time because he and the Bills have appeared inconsistent this season. Through eight games this season, Allen has thrown for 2,165 yards, 17 touchdowns, and eight interceptions in addition to using his legs to sprint for 189 yards and five scores. The Bengals weren’t duped by his ability to run with the football in the divisional round earlier this year; it’s arguably his scariest quality.
Every game is different, even though the Bengals easily handled Allen and the Bills in that January playoff game. After losing to Cincinnati and being humiliated in that game, Allen and his team will be driven to exact revenge.
Kyle Allen will be the Bills’ snapper if Allen is unable to play, which doesn’t seem like a problem that needs to be discussed.
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We’re taking a midseason look at win projections for all 32 teams for the 2023 season, with an emphasis on the AFC below, with eight weeks (and the trade deadline) behind us.
As always, let me know if you see anything intriguing in your eye test results or if there’s a statistic or trend you’d like me to look into more. Please contact me at @CFrelund. As in the case of any excellent analytics department, our ability to generate value increases with increased collaboration.
In fact, it appears that the Ravens’ upcoming interconference matchup with the Seahawks will be crucial to their season. With Baltimore winning in 52.5% of simulations, the game is predicted to be close and currently adds 0.525 to the team’s win total. The Ravens will provide some insurance against some difficult stretches ahead if they defeat Seattle and convert that 0.525 into one complete victory. These include back-to-back games against AFC North opponents in Weeks 10 (against the Browns) and 11 (against the Bengals), as well as three coin-flip-close games in Weeks 15–17 (against the 49ers, at the Dolphins, and at the Jaguars).
The eye test confirms what the Next Gen Stats indicate about the Dolphins’ speed: they have an abundance of it! Miami players account for the five fastest ball-carrying or pass-catching speeds this season, according to NGS. However, another, less evident statistic highlights the Dolphins’ offensive mastery: Going all the way back to Week 1 of the 2022 season, as of Week 8, they have outperformed every other NFL team in terms of variety of play calls (based on positive EPA). (Incidentally, their opponent in Week 9 is Kansas City, the team they replaced last week.)
Josh Allen (48 pressures) has the most pressures of any player so far this season, according to NGS. Perhaps I didn’t give the defence enough credit, as the defence currently has the seventh-best win share in the NFL, even though we were aware of the Jaguars’ offensive potential going into 2023.
Since 2018, Josh Allen has been picked off more times than any other player in the NFL (50 times) on passes with 10 or more air yards. Buffalo’s defence must give up as few points to opposing teams as possible in order to limit turnovers, which is largely dependent on keeping the offence from going into catch-up mode. Therefore, it was a wise move to sign cornerback Rasul Douglas from the Packers on Tuesday, particularly with Tre’Davious White on injured reserve. Douglas has allowed the fewest yards per target this season—6.5—against any other healthy corner on the Bills’ roster, according to NGS data.
Joe Burrow was 31st in the NFL in expected completion percentage in Weeks 1-4, and Cincinnati had a losing record. He was ranked second in Weeks 5-8, when Cincinnati went 3-0. After being hindered by a calf injury early in the season, it appears that he may finally be at full strength. The primary lesson is that, thus far this season, we haven’t seen just how good the Bengals can be when playing for extended periods of time. However, the underlying metrics point to a high ceiling.
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