And lastly, some cap relief for the Leafs of Toronto.
The wage cap for players in the National Hockey League will raise by more than $4 million this offseason, or 5.39 percent, to a record $88 million, after increasing by just $4 million over the previous six seasons.
The new deals for Austin Matthews and William Nylander will more than offset that increase, but Toronto’s large number of expiring contracts will provide even more breathing room.
The Leafs spent almost $21 million on Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi, Ilya Samsonov, TJ Brodie, and John Klingberg alone last season. It seems logical to anticipate the team will be able to receive higher value for those funds the following season. (In actuality, a few of the main causes of their retreat from 2022–2023 were the downturns of Samsonov, Brodie, and Klingberg.)
Although there aren’t many elite players in this year’s free agent class, Chris Johnston’s big board is full of first- and second-line forwards and top-four defencemen.
The Utah Yeti, for instance, are listed with $43 million in cash. While the Leafs may not have as much cap space as some of their rivals, general manager Brad Treliving presently has more flexibility than 15 other clubs, which includes nearly all of the teams in the playoffs. And that’s before he might even consider moving one of his stars out.
I’m going to presume that The Core Five players who have no-movement agreements are staying for the purposes of this essay. The cap image may become more hopeful if one of them is shifted, depending on what is returned.
With just over three weeks remaining before free agency, these are the players the Leafs have signed as of right now.
The largest gaps, at first appearance, are in goal and defense, where Brodie, Joel Edmundson, Mark Giordano, and Illya Lyubushkin are all going to market with just under $20 million to spend.
It’s interesting to note that adding restricted free agents primarily makes a crowded forward group even more full. Particularly considering that Easton Cowan will probably be selected for a first-month audition following training camp in the fall.
Based on the closest historical comparables on one-year contracts, I’ve placed Cowan on the roster and estimated wages for RFAs Nick Robertson, Connor Dewar, and Timothy Liljegren. (Noah Gregor becomes a UFA after not receiving a qualifying offer at this location.)
Currently, I don’t see the Leafs benefiting from extending the terms of these RFAs, even if doing so would raise the average yearly worth of their contracts. Not with so many demands on their hands elsewhere.
I’ve also sent down Conor Timmins, who is probably in the running to rejoin the team, to free up an additional $1.1 million in cap space.
Perhaps he obtains waivers. Perhaps he doesn’t.
With 13 forwards, 4 defensemen, and a goalie on the roster, it makes 18 players and $15.6 million left over.
In theory, they could move Dewar or Pontus Holmberg to center and avoid adding players up front, but with Bertuzzi and Domi out of the picture, they would be noticeably weaker than they were this previous season.
I believe the following would be a superior play:
1. Aim for a reasonably inexpensive outcome.Since teams like the New Jersey Devils can demand a top-10 pick in exchange, I predict Treliving will have a very difficult time luring either Jacob Markstrom or Linus Ullmark away of Calgary and Boston. There isn’t a true No. 1 available in free agency. That means the Leafs management is still extremely, extremely bullish on Joseph Woll, therefore a tandem option like Laurent Brossoit is left to split starts with him.
Although Brossoit hasn’t played much, he has had strong results in the last several campaigns. As a 31-year-old UFA, getting a solid team where he can start regularly will be his first priority. The Leafs are a good fit, and from what I hear, there’s shared interest.
Given how small the UFA goalkeeper class is, it’s difficult to estimate his exact cost, but I’d venture to say that he’ll sign a relatively short-term contract for about $3 million.
2. Go after the big fish in center and defense.Ideally, you include a top-pair RD option so that you can play against Morgan Rielly. Additionally, you locate a center who can contend with John Tavares for the 2C position, improving the balance of your starting nine forwards compared to the previous campaign.
Is that even feasible?
In my opinion, yes. Three roster slots and about $13 million remain if Brossoit (or Anthony Stolarz) is their starting goalie. A inexpensive third-pair defenseman may be one of those, leaving about $12 million to be divided between a center and an RD.
The cap is now rising and is expected to rise much more sharply in the future, so it’s feasible that this year’s UFA contracts grow out of control and the Leafs lose out to other teams for some of the best players. (Player agents have already told me that they are anticipating July 1st to be extremely profitable in comparison to the previous few years.)
However, Treliving should have enough UFA alternatives in the middle and on the blue line to add impact players at both spots this summer. If they are unable to acquire a center, I think they will refocus and concentrate on increasing the depth of their wing rotation, with veteran David Perron being a prime target.
3. Possibly most crucially, make an effort to cut additional pay that is abused in order to alter the composition and move up the lineup.
Reiterating that the cap image above was taken prior to any trades being made is important. Furthermore, not all of the candidates with large contracts and NMCs need to be dealt with.
Given that Liljegren may not mesh stylistically with new coach Craig Berube, Liljegren, who is valued at $2.1 million on the third pair, for instance, stands out as a possible trade asset. The Leafs might also let go of Dewar or David Kämpf and use the money they saved to sign impact UFAs.
With a few such cutbacks, the Leafs might have closer to $14.5 million to spend on two of their most pressing needs, which would free them up to pursue players such as Brady Skjei, Matt Roy, Matt Duchene, Perron, and others more aggressively.
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