Juan Soto, an outfielder, has been a key component of the New York Yankees’ early success in 2024, as they have emerged as one of the league’s best teams. The Yankees are paying Soto $31 million this season, but he is anticipated to become a free agent in November. Soto is represented by Scott Boras. Depending on who you ask, different things will need to happen this winter in order for the 25-year-old to sign.
Regarding Soto’s impending free agency, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel polled 28 executives, agents, and insiders, paying particular attention to the kind of deal he would land. There was a broad range in the responses: three people thought he would sign for less than $400 million, while three more thought he would sign for more than $600 million. Of the 28 projections, the one with the highest estimate was a $655 million, 10-year contract.
Soto has impressive numbers, despite the opinions of certain players who believe he is overvalued. He was a major contributor to the Washington Nationals’ 2019 World Series victory and has been a dominant force at the plate since making his professional debut in 2018 at the age of 19. He has been selected for three All-Star teams, won four Silver Slugger Awards, and won a batting title.
Soto is batting in his first 298 plate appearances with the Yankees in 2024.316/.426/.594 with 53 RBIs, 52 runs scored, 11 doubles, and 17 home runs.
Many of Soto’s Contract Predictions Had a Common Theme
McDaniel provided specific forecasts based on his conversations with a range of industry insiders. Eight think Soto will sign a contract for $400 million to $499 million, and a sizable 14 think a contract worth $500 million to $599 million will be signed.
In the past, Soto and his representative, Scott Boras, turned down a 15-year, $440 million contract offer from the Nationals in 2022, indicating that they had bigger goals in mind. After deferrals are taken into account, Shohei Ohtani’s Los Angeles Dodgers contract is worth an average of $46 million per year and has a net present value of $460 million. According to McDaniel, the people he spoke with anticipate that Boras will aim for a contract that exceeds these sums.
Tim Britton of The Athletic projected in December that Soto’s contract would last 14 years and $540 million, which is in line with the median prediction of 13 years and $500 million.
Which Teams Are Expected to Pursue Soto This Winter?
Soto is a highly sought-after acquisition for any squad since he has the potential to be a generational player. Still, very few teams have the financial wherewithal to invest half a billion dollars or more over the next ten years or more.
“It’s still very early, of course, but when discussing potential outcomes with our panel of baseball insiders, the Yankees and Mets were by far the most common answers,” McDaniel said. The San Francisco Giants, Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers, Washington Nationals, and San Francisco Giants were all mentioned frequently, but at this point, everyone else is viewed as second-class to the New York clubs.
Even before Soto played his first official game in pinstripes, there had been rumors for months that the Mets and Yankees would engage in a bidding battle. When Soto becomes a free agent, it is anticipated that Mets owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns will take a strong stance. It is unlikely to stop Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner from pursuing Soto, even though the organization wants to cut payroll below $300 million in the near future.
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