A loss to the Dolphins in Week 18 might cause Buffalo to miss the playoffs completely.
As we approach the regular season finale, there are two very different outcomes that could happen to the Buffalo Bills. One possibility is that they finish as the AFC’s second seed and open the playoffs with a home game the following week. They would be at home the following week in a different circumstance, but it would be at home on their couch, watching the other playoff teams sit there eliminated.
The 10-6 Bills will win the AFC East and qualify for the playoffs if they defeat the 11-5 Miami Dolphins in Week 18.
In the event that they are defeated, their fate will be determined by the outcomes of the games played by the Pittsburgh Steelers, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Houston Texans versus the Indianapolis Colts.
A couple things must occur in order for the Bills to be eliminated from the playoffs.
The first game the 9-7 Steelers must win is against the 13-3 Baltimore Ravens, who have already clinched the top spot. That might sound like a stretch, but the Ravens will probably sit a lot of their starters for the majority of the game. Baltimore recently defeated the Dolphins 56-19.
The 5-11 Tennessee Titans would also need to be defeated by the 9-7 Jaguars. The Titans have just suffered a 26-3 loss against the Texans, while the Jaguars have just defeated the Carolina Panthers 26-0.
The fact that the Colts and Texans game cannot result in a draw is the third element of the puzzle. When they compete on Saturday, a winner must be determined; the outcome is irrelevant.
Buffalo and Miami face off in game No. 272, the final game of the regular season, on “Sunday Night Football.” This means the Bills will know going into the game whether their playoff chances rely solely on a win after seeing the results of the other three games.
Although Miami has already guaranteed a postseason berth, its seeding is still up in the air. It is now ranked as the second seed, with the Bills at number six. SportsLine Data Scientist Stephen Oh estimates Buffalo’s chances of winning the division are currently 54.2% and 88.3%, respectively.
A month ago, the Bills had a 6-6 record before starting a four-game winning streak. According to Oh, the Bills’ chances of qualifying for the postseason were 15% going into Week 14. Now, if they get that far, they could guarantee home field all the way to the AFC Championship.
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