How many games in the Big 12 Conference will WVU win?
The Mountaineers are in for a difficult journey.
To put it mildly, West Virginia has experienced a great deal in the first few months of the 2023–24 season. Josh Eilert, the head coach in his first year, has had to deal with a series of challenges, including injuries, medical scares, suspensions, and legal battles over eligibility.
With five games played outside of the conference already under their belt, the Mountaineers have virtually no margin for error. WVU will either need to pull off a miraculous run in Kansas City and win the Big 12 tournament, or they will need to win multiple games against opponents ranked in the top 25, something they will have plenty of opportunities to do.
Due to surgery, big man Jesse Edwards is about halfway through his recuperation and won’t play in the next three games. WVU’s first five league games will see four of its opponents ranked in the top 25 when conference play begins. They will have a chance to turn things around in time for Edwards’ return and, for the first time this season, have the entire roster to work with if they can manage to steal one of these next three games (probably Kansas State).
In each of the final 18 games, West Virginia’s chances of winning are less than half.
Houston’s 1/6 (1.2%)
1/9 against 40% of Kansas State
1/31 against Texas (30.2%)
1/7 in Oklahoma 8.4%)
20 vs. 21.6% Kansas
1/23 (13%) at UCF
at Oklahoma State on 1/27 (22.9%)
13.1 against Cincinnati (26.6%)
2/3 in contrast to BYU (22.3%)
2/10 (or 7.6%) at Texas
2.12 at TCU (8.6%).
20.5% on 2/17 against Baylor
2/20 against 38.6% of UCF
At Iowa State, 2/24 (3.6%)
Kansas State on 2/26 (13.1%)
1-1 against Texas Tech (36%)
3/6 against TCU (30.6%)
Cincinnati on 3/9 (9.4%)
Even with how terrible this season has been for WVU, a 0–18 record still seems unlikely. In conference play, how many games will the Mountaineers win? My choice is five. That seems like a reasonable total, especially if Edwards returns within the next two weeks. Don’t ask me who the five wins are.
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