Which teams will finish the week above.500?
We have seven 6-6 teams on our radar heading into the final five weeks of the NFL regular season.
In the AFC, this includes Buffalo and Denver. Both teams are currently outside of the playoff picture, and they face difficult road tests. The Bills travel to Kansas City, while the Broncos visit the divisional rival Chargers. Both of those games are on CBS in the afternoon.
The other five teams are in the NFC. Atlanta leads the NFC South division, and they can extend their lead against Tampa Bay in Week 14. The remaining teams in that cluster are Minnesota, Green Bay, Los Angeles, and Seattle, in that order, and all four are on the road this week. These are underdogs in the playoff race, and Sporting News picked two of them to win this week.
Every week, Sporting News picks every NFL game against the spread. A look at our record this season as we enter Week 14:
Remember when this was the NFL’s premier quarterback competition? You now have two of the league’s worst scoring offenses, with the Patriots (12.3 ppg) being the worst. Pittsburgh (16.0 ppg) isn’t much better, and on a short week, Mitchell Trubisky will fill in for the injured Kenny Pickett. Will Bailey Zappe start for the Patriots?
Steelers 17, Patriots 10.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)
CBS, 1 p.m. Sunday
Atlanta won the first meeting 16-13 on Oct. 22, and a win here would give them some breathing room in the NFC South race. The Buccaneers have lost four straight road games, and their defense isn’t forcing enough turnovers. Since reintroducing Desmond Ridder as the starter, the Falcons are 2-0 ATS.
Falcons 21, Buccaneers 18.
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears (-3.5)
Fox, 1 p.m. Sunday
What’s the deal with this line being so low? The Lions look like a Super Bowl contender, and they are 5-1 S/U on the road this season. On Nov. 19, Chicago blew a 12-point fourth-quarter lead against Detroit and had a week off to prepare. Simple stat to keep track of: Detroit is 7-1 when it has one or fewer turnovers. They’ll win this game if Jared Goff plays clean.
Gardner Minshew has led the Colts to the AFC playoffs with four straight road victories, including three on the road. Cincinnati is adjusting t
o life without Joe Burrows, but their three home losses have all been by a combined 12 points. The Colts appear to be in a trap game.
The Browns have used three quarterbacks in the last three weeks, and it’s showing. In the last three weeks, those quarterbacks have a combined completion percentage of 51.9%. The Jacksonville-in-cold-weather factor is always present, but they have won their last two visits to Cleveland.
In the first meeting, New Orleans defeated Carolina 20-17. Because Derek Carr is in concussion protocol and has back and shoulder injuries, this could be a battle of Heisman Trophy winners between Jameis Winston and Bryce Young. Will they later argue about Florida State and Alabama? Expect the Panthers to cover in yet another one-point loss.
The Texans have won four of their last five games and are proving their playoff viability with rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. The Jets have averaged 9.7 points per game in six games since their bye week, and neither Tim Boyle nor Trevor Siemian are viable quarterback options. The Texans are 1-4 as a favorite, but we’ll put our faith in their offense on the road.
With three straight victories since the bye week, the Rams have found a groove. The ground game has improved around Kyren Williams, who has averaged 6.2 yards per carry over the last two weeks. During that time, Los Angeles has also allowed 76 rushing yards per game. Baltimore had a bye week and is 7-4 ATS this season as a favorite. Even with Los Angeles’ early kickoff, the game feels tighter than expected.
Since the bye week, San Francisco has outscored opponents 134-49, putting together an impressive four-game winning streak in which Brock Purdy has a 74.1% completion percentage, 11 touchdowns, and one interception. San Francisco won the first meeting 31-13, and they are playing at home this time. The underdog has value, but it’s difficult to bet against the 49ers, who are 2-1 ATS when favored by double digits. We’ll give it a shot with a desperate Seattle team.
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